Follow the final day of the Premier League onThe Athletic
- How will the trophy presentation work? Which games will be on TV?
- De Zerbi’s Brighton exit is the only solution due to irreconcilable differences
- Assessing a season full of goals, asterisks and VAR rage
It is the final day of the 2023-24 Premier League season and all 20 clubs will be hoping to end their campaigns on a positive note.
Every game kicks off at 4pm UK time (11am ET; 8am PT) and there is still a lot to be decided — most notably the title and battle for European football.
There are a number of other issues that will be settled on the pitch, with prize money and individual awards up for grabs, as well as the ignominy of historically bad finishing positions to avoid.
Here, The Athletic details what can still be settled as the curtain comes down on another thrilling season.
The title
For the 10th time in the Premier League era (1992-93 onwards), the title will be decided on the final day of the season — with Manchester City and Arsenal the two clubs left fighting to be crowned champions of England.
The battle for the title
| Position | Team | Played | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 38 | 62 | 91 | |
2 | 38 | 62 | 89 |
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, who are firm favourites to finish victorious, play West Ham United at home and Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal host Everton.
Manchester City will win the title if they beat West Ham. If City draw or lose, they will be champions if Arsenal fail to win.
Arsenal have to beat Everton to stand any chance of a first league triumph since the 2003-04 season. If they do pick up three points against Sean Dyche’s side, then they will win the title if City fail to beat West Ham due to their superior goal difference.
This is the first Premier League season where the title will be decided on the final day and one of Manchester United or Liverpool are not involved.
— Will Jeanes (@will_jeanes) May 12, 2024
If Manchester City do win the league, they will become the first club in the 135-year history of the English top flight to be crowned champions in four consecutive seasons.
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It would be Manchester City’s 10th top-flight title overall, with only two of their previous triumphs coming before the 2010s. Arsenal, meanwhile, would move up to 14 if they secure glory this weekend.
If Arsenal do win the title, it will be the first time since the 1988-89 season that the team going into the final day top of the table has not won the league.
The club that triumphed from second place in that season was… Arsenal. They overhauled Liverpool by beating them 2-0 at Anfield in what was effectively a play-off for the title on the final day. Michael Thomas scored in added time to hand the London club the league by virtue of having scored more goals than Liverpool during the campaign (they were tied on points and goal difference).
One of Mikel Arteta or Pep Guardiola (right) will guide their team to the title ( Michael Regan/Getty Images)
If Arsenal finish second, they will be the first team to finish as runners-up in back-to-back seasons since Chelsea in 2006-07 and 2007-08.
GO DEEPERMichael Thomas interview: Liverpool academy, mentoringThe European places
England’s four representatives in next season’s revamped Champions League have already been determined, with Liverpool and Aston Villa joining Arsenal and Manchester City in Europe’s premier club competition.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa will be appearing in the competition for the first time since the 1982-83 season (when it was still called the European Cup).
GO DEEPERHow the new Champions League format worksYet qualification for the Europa League and Conference League (the ‘Europa’ is being dropped from the name of the latter competition from next season) is still up for grabs.
Two clubs will enter the Europa League and one will go into the Conference League. Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Manchester United are the clubs in contention and the outcome is dependent on a whole host of permutations, including who wins the FA Cup final.
The race for Europe
| Position | Team | Played | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 38 | 13 | 66 | |
6 | 38 | 14 | 63 | |
7 | 38 | 23 | 60 | |
8 | 38 | -1 | 60 |
Below is a handy guide which explains who needs to do what to secure European football next season.
GO DEEPERExplaining the race for Europe in the Premier LeagueThe latest available figures show that qualifying for the Europa League will net clubs €3.63million (£3.1m; $3.9m) and reaching the Conference League will earn a windfall of €2.94m (£2.5m; $3.18m).
Who will be relegated?
Sheffield United and Burnley have already been relegated and will play in the Championship next season — and one of Luton Town or Nottingham Forest will join them.
How the bottom of the PL table looks
| Position | Team | Played | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
17 | 38 | -18 | 32* | |
18 (R) | 38 | -33 | 26 | |
19 (R) | 38 | -37 | 24 | |
20 (R) | 38 | -69 | 16 | |
*Deducted four points |
Nottingham Forest, in 17th, are three points clear of Luton and due to their vastly superior goal difference are highly unlikely to go down. Forest play Burnley away and Luton host 14th-placed Fulham.
There would need to be 12-goal swing for Luton to secure another season of Premier League football and given they have only won one game by more than one goal all season, they are almost certainly going to be returning to the Championship.
Luton Town look likely to suffer relegation to the Championship (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
If, as expected, Luton do go down, then this will be just the second season in the Premier League era where every newly-promoted team has been relegated — after 1997-98 when Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace all returned to the second tier at the first time of asking.
Given the value of the broadcast deal enjoyed by the Premier League, relegation is a huge financial blow.
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Clubs do receive parachute payments after going down (around £40m in the first season) but, according to football finance expert Kieran Maguire, their total revenue will drop by more than 50 per cent, which will cost around £100m.
How much prize money do clubs earn?
On paper, teams who have avoided relegation and aren’t challenging for the title or the European spots have very little to play for in their final matches.
However, there are millions of pounds available for finishing just one position in the table higher than you started the day in.
Only Liverpool (third), Aston Villa (fourth), West Ham United (ninth) and Sheffield United (20th) have a guaranteed finishing position, so 16 clubs have, at the very least, a financial motivation to get all three points.
Here is what each finishing position earns, based off last season’s figures. Due to the broadcast deal being the same as the 2022-23 campaign, we can expect these numbers to be very accurate.
Estimated PL Merit Payments
| POS | Est. UK Merit | Est. International Merit | Est. Total Merit |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | £33,779,160 | £40,698,573 | £74,477,733 |
2 | £32,090,202 | £38,663,645 | £70,753,847 |
3 | £30,401,244 | £36,628,716 | £67,029,960 |
4 | £28,712,286 | £34,593,787 | £63,306,073 |
5 | £27,023,328 | £32,558,859 | £59,582,187 |
6 | £25,334,370 | £30,523,930 | £55,858,300 |
7 | £23,645,412 | £28,489,001 | £52,134,413 |
8 | £21,956,454 | £26,454,073 | £48,410,527 |
9 | £20,267,496 | £24,419,144 | £44,686,640 |
10 | £18,578,538 | £22,384,215 | £40,962,753 |
11 | £16,889,580 | £20,349,287 | £37,238,867 |
12 | £15,200,622 | £18,314,358 | £33,514,980 |
13 | £13,511,664 | £16,279,429 | £29,791,093 |
14 | £11,822,706 | £14,244,501 | £26,067,207 |
15 | £10,133,748 | £12,209,572 | £22,343,320 |
16 | £8,444,790 | £10,174,643 | £18,619,433 |
17 | £6,755,832 | £8,139,715 | £14,895,547 |
18 | £5,066,874 | £6,104,786 | £11,171,660 |
19 | £3,377,916 | £4,069,857 | £7,447,773 |
20 | £1,688,958 | £2,034,929 | £3,723,887 |
None of the 20 clubs still have the chance to record their outright highest-placed finish in the top flight (though Manchester City and Arsenal can both equal theirs).
Who will win the Golden Boot?
Erling Haaland is poised to finish as the Premier League’s top scorer for a second season in a row and win the Golden Boot again.
The Manchester City forward has scored 27 league goals — with Chelsea’s Cole Palmer the second-highest scorer in 2023-24 with 22 goals.
Top scorers in 2023-24 Premier League
| Player | Team | Goals |
|---|---|---|
Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 27 |
Cole Palmer | Chelsea | 22 |
Alexander Isak | Newcastle | 21 |
Dominic Solanke | Bournemouth | 19 |
Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 19 |
Phil Foden | Manchester City | 19 |
Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 18 |
Son Heung-min | Tottenham | 17 |
Jarrod Bowen | West Ham | 16 |
Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | 16 |
Last season, Haaland scored 36 goals. If he can score three against West Ham, he will be the first player to score 30+ goals in back-to-back Premier League seasons since Blackburn Rovers’ Alan Shearer (three consecutive campaigns) in 1993-94, 1994-95 and 1995-96.
If two or more players finish on the same number of goals, then the award is shared.
Erling Haaland is the favourite to finish as the league’s top scorer (James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
Who will win the Playmaker award?
This award — given to the player who provides the most assists over the campaign — was introduced in the 2017-18 season.
Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne has won it three of the six times it has been handed out, and the Belgian is in the hunt again this season.
However, Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins will take some beating — the Englishman is three clear of the field heading into the final day of the season.
Most assists in 2023-24 Premier League
| Player | Club | Assists |
|---|---|---|
Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 13 |
Cole Palmer | Chelsea | 11 |
Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | 10 |
Anthony Gordon | Newcastle | 10 |
Pascal Gross | Brighton | 10 |
Kevin De Bruyne | Manchester City | 10 |
Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 10 |
Kieran Trippier | Newcastle | 10 |
Like the Golden Boot, if two or more players finish on the same number of assists, then the award is shared.
Who will win the Player, Manager and Team of the year awards?
These awards will be decided after the final round of fixtures. Manchester City’s Phil Foden is the favourite with the bookmakers to be crowned PFA Players’ Player of the Year (decided by players), with team-mate Rodri, Chelsea’s Palmer and Arsenal’s Declan Rice all not far behind.
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The manager of the season is decided by a panel assembled by the Premier League’s sponsors. Guardiola, Arteta and Emery are the leading contenders.
As for the team of the year, it is sure to include a number of players from Manchester City and Arsenal. Last season, nine of the 11 selected played for one of these clubs and it is likely to be similar for this campaign.
And finally… here are a few quirky stats to look out for as you settle down in front of the television to feast on the final day of the 2023-24 Premier League season:
• If Manchester City win the title with an inferior goal difference to Arsenal (right now it’s Arsenal: 61; City: 60) it will be the first time in Guardiola’s career that his team have won the league and not had the highest goal difference.
• Manchester United, who are in eighth, are battling to avoid their outright lowest-placed finish in the Premier League era — seventh in 2013-14 (the season after Sir Alex Ferguson retired). Erik ten Hag’s team are away at Brighton & Hove Albion and, due to their poor goal difference, realistically need to better Newcastle’s result (Brentford away) to make the top seven. The last time United finished as low as eighth in the top flight was in 1989-90 when they came 13th. That campaign was also the last where United registered a negative goal difference (-1). Heading into the final game of this season, it is -3.
GO DEEPERInside Fergie’s lair: what it was really like in Man United manager’s slipstream• If Burnley concede four times against Nottingham Forest, they will join Sheffield United (101) and Luton (81) in conceding 80+ goals this season. The last English top-flight season where three clubs conceded this many was in 1966-67. That campaign saw five clubs ship 80+ goals: Southampton (92), Aston Villa (85), West Ham (84), Fulham (83) and Newcastle (81). If Burnley don’t hit the unwanted mark of 80, West Ham could do so if they concede nine against Manchester City….
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• Speaking of West Ham, who are guaranteed to finish ninth, their goal difference of -12 is unusually low for a team in the top half of the table. Since the introduction of goal difference in the 1976-77 season, the club with the lowest figure to finish in the top 10 is Wimbledon in 1994-95 with -17. Joe Kinnear’s team came ninth that year.
• Fulham’s Joao Palhinha has received the most yellow cards so far this season with 13 — one more than Bournemouth’s Marcos Senesi. Palhinha picked up the most bookings in the Premier League last season, so if he does end up ‘top’ of the pile again, he will become the third player in the competition’s history to do so twice — after Mark Hughes in 1995-96 and 1998-99 and Cheick Tiote in 2010-11 and 2011-12.
(Top photo: Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
